Trends
Every run is kept, so the record shows movement rather than only a current position. This page reads that record: how the whole dataset is distributed across the four bands over time, and which countries have moved most recently.
Band distribution over time
- Low 84
- Caution 90
- High 53
- Extreme 9
Counts only countries with enough evidence to band, so a country entering or leaving coverage changes the height of the chart as well as its shape. That is a fact about our sources rather than about the world, and it is the main thing to hold in mind when reading a long term movement here.
Biggest movers
| Country | Was | Now | Change | Over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Republic of Tanzania | 53High53 of 100, High band, 50 to 74 | 71High71 of 100, High band, 50 to 74 | +17.8 | 60 days |
| Kosovo | 23Low23 of 100, Low band, 0 to 24 | 40Caution40 of 100, Caution band, 25 to 49 | +17.4 | 60 days |
| Hong Kong | 52High52 of 100, High band, 50 to 74 | 68High68 of 100, High band, 50 to 74 | +16.7 | 60 days |
| Cayman Islands | 10Low10 of 100, Low band, 0 to 24 | 26Caution26 of 100, Caution band, 25 to 49 | +16.1 | 60 days |
| Myanmar | 70High70 of 100, High band, 50 to 74 | 85Extreme85 of 100, Extreme band, 75 to 100 | +15.5 | 60 days |
| Ghana | 29Caution29 of 100, Caution band, 25 to 49 | 43Caution43 of 100, Caution band, 25 to 49 | +14.8 | 60 days |
| Saudi Arabia | 55High55 of 100, High band, 50 to 74 | 70High70 of 100, High band, 50 to 74 | +14.1 | 60 days |
| Bermuda | 10Low10 of 100, Low band, 0 to 24 | 23Low23 of 100, Low band, 0 to 24 | +13.3 | 60 days |
| Saint Lucia | 19Low19 of 100, Low band, 0 to 24 | 32Caution32 of 100, Caution band, 25 to 49 | +12.4 | 60 days |
| Macao | 21Low21 of 100, Low band, 0 to 24 | 34Caution34 of 100, Caution band, 25 to 49 | +12.4 | 60 days |
| Sri Lanka | 30Caution30 of 100, Caution band, 25 to 49 | 43Caution43 of 100, Caution band, 25 to 49 | +12.3 | 60 days |
| India | 60High60 of 100, High band, 50 to 74 | 72High72 of 100, High band, 50 to 74 | +12.1 | 60 days |
| Mexico | 31Caution31 of 100, Caution band, 25 to 49 | 43Caution43 of 100, Caution band, 25 to 49 | +11.9 | 60 days |
| Western Sahara | 10Low10 of 100, Low band, 0 to 24 | 22Low22 of 100, Low band, 0 to 24 | +11.7 | 60 days |
| Benin | 34Caution34 of 100, Caution band, 25 to 49 | 46Caution46 of 100, Caution band, 25 to 49 | +11.4 | 60 days |
| Malaysia | 32Caution32 of 100, Caution band, 25 to 49 | 43Caution43 of 100, Caution band, 25 to 49 | +11.1 | 60 days |
| Nigeria | 46Caution46 of 100, Caution band, 25 to 49 | 57High57 of 100, High band, 50 to 74 | +11.0 | 60 days |
| Nicaragua | 60High60 of 100, High band, 50 to 74 | 71High71 of 100, High band, 50 to 74 | +11.0 | 60 days |
| Poland | 24Low24 of 100, Low band, 0 to 24 | 35Caution35 of 100, Caution band, 25 to 49 | +10.9 | 60 days |
| United States of America | 32Caution32 of 100, Caution band, 25 to 49 | 42Caution42 of 100, Caution band, 25 to 49 | +10.8 | 60 days |
A positive change means more risk to the traveller. Movements over a short window are usually the event overlay decaying rather than a change on the ground: a news signal halves in weight every three weeks, so a score that rose on an incident falls back toward its structural baseline without anything happening. Sustained movement, or a band change, is what to read. Both are announced in the change feed.